May 19, 2004

More On Iranian Nukes

I just returned from a few days in Chicago and Minneapolis. The airports were packed … especially for a Wednesday afternoon. Say what you will about the economy: by my experience the world is taking summer vacation, and it’s not waiting until Memorial Day.

As I pushed through the crowds with my rollaboard, I kept chewing on my Iran post of earlier today. When it’s all said and done, the questions we’re asking about Iran and its proliferation doesn’t seem to be the correct question. As it’s being framed publicly now, the question is: “Do we want a fundamentalist Islamic state to control nuclear weapons.”

And the answer to that, everywhere expect Iran, is “No.” Too destabilizing … too much opportunity for WMD to reach a terrorist network … too much of a catalyst for continued proliferation of nuclear technology through that part of the world. And we use the threat of Iran joining The Club as one (of many) reasons to drive toward regime change there.

But if you take Nick Kristof at his word, it’s not just the Mullahs that want Iran to have nuclear capability—it’s the Iranians themselves. So the question I keep coming back to is: “Why would that change with a change in regime?” I can’t see how it would, unless we were to extract concessions from the new regime that they wouldn’t stride further down the atomic path. And frankly, even if they did, how realistic is it to expect they’d honor that commitment … joining The Club is the single greatest symbol of having arrived on the global political-economic stage, and it comes with all sorts of trappings and honorifics. That’s why they call it a “club.”

If anything, we should expect a liberal, democratic Iranian regime to be even more strident about proliferation because they could call our bluff on any barrier we might construct to their entry: what are we going to do, bomb the power facilities of a peaceful, liberal democratic trading partner? Look to history: What do the members of the Nuclear Club do when other economically and (generally) politically liberal nations develop nuclear weapons? If we take Pakistan, India, and yes, Israel, as precedent, the answer is: “Nothing.”

I raise all this because it seems to me that the members of the Nuclear Club have no real answer to the question of proliferation among non-totalitarian states other than the good assurances of the NNPT. If anything, the North Koreas and Irans make it easy for us … as rouge nations, it’s easy to respond to proliferation with force, bombing their capability back into the last century. But a connected, liberal North Korea or Iran (or Syria, or Brazil) with nukes … that’s a different story.

And is the world any more secure? Using my prior criteria: Too destabilizing … likely. Too much opportunity for WMD to reach a terrorist network … possibly. Too much of a catalyst for continued proliferation of nuclear technology through that part of the world … likely as well. Take the case of nuclear oversight in Russia (please) as an example, and see if you sleep any better.

All told, in the long run the prospect for proliferation among “friendly” nations doesn’t make me feel much more secure that it does among “unfriendly” states, and for the former, I believe we have no response at all. And perhaps, in the end, it doesn’t matter. There are plenty of liberal democratic states with nukes now, and as much as the Brits may want to bomb the French (and vice-versa), no one’s pushed the button as yet. It may be that between the promise of MAD and economic interdependence, nuclear weapons among an increasing number of liberal states is no big deal … except, of course, for the increased likelihood of WMD-related destabilization, terrorism, and proliferation that comes with each additional member of the clique.

I’d be interested in Tom Barnett’s take on this (hey, there it is), as well as anyone else with a two-bit opinion (same price as mine).

Posted by Avocare at May 19, 2004 09:55 PM | TrackBack
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